Canada’s online casino industry is heading into 2026 with strong momentum, shaped by expanding provincial regulation, improving consumer adoption of legal platforms, and continued product innovation from operators competing for a larger share of digital play. While economic headwinds and the persistent grey/illegal market remain real constraints, the direction of travel is clear: more provinces are moving toward regulated, competitive iGaming models, and the size of the online casino segment is projected to rise accordingly.
This forecast, reviewed by TorontoStar, highlights where growth is most likely to come from in 2026, what provincial developments matter most, and which opportunities and risks could shape performance across the country.
A growing market – national revenue outlook to 2026
One of the most cited benchmarks for Canada’s regulated online casino opportunity is the estimate that regulated online casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) across provinces could reach C$3.85 billion by 2026 (about USD $3 billion), reflecting the gradual expansion of legal frameworks and better “channelization” (shifting play from unregulated sites to regulated ones). This projection aligns with broader market research pointing to continued expansion in the online gambling category nationwide.
For example, Grand View Research projects Canada’s online gambling market to grow at a 14.3% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, following an estimated US$15.59 billion in total gambling revenue in 2025—an upward trend that supports digital casino growth within the wider mix.
The important nuance for 2026 is that growth won’t be evenly distributed across the country. Canada’s gambling regulation is provincial, and each province moves at its own pace. That means national forecasts are best understood as an aggregate of very different local markets—some mature and competitive, others still primarily government-run, and a few on the brink of major change.
Ontario: Canada’s benchmark regulated iGaming market
Ontario remains the anchor for Canada’s online casino story. Since opening its regulated market to private operators in 2022, the province has developed the most mature competitive iGaming ecosystem in the country, with dozens of brands and a relatively clear licensing and compliance structure.
Earlier projections suggested Ontario online gambling GGR could climb to around C$3.27 billion by 2026, reflecting the province’s ability to attract both operators and players into the regulated channel. Ontario’s strength is also strategic: it provides a proof of concept for other provinces weighing competitive market launches.
An iGaming Ontario business plan further outlines the province’s objectives around market development, consumer protection, and sustainable growth planning through the mid-2020s.
What to watch in 2026
- More refinement of responsible gambling standards and advertising practices
- Continued product differentiation (live dealer, game studios, loyalty programs)
- Ongoing efforts to keep players on regulated sites rather than offshore alternatives
Alberta: a major potential inflection point in early 2026
Alberta is the province most likely to change the national iGaming picture in 2026.
Multiple reports indicate Alberta is preparing a competitive private-sector iGaming framework targeted for early 2026, enabled by Bill 48. If implemented as expected, Alberta’s shift could meaningfully expand Canada’s regulated online casino footprint, both in revenue and in operator participation. The core policy goal mirrors Ontario’s: migrate play away from grey market offerings by making regulated products more attractive, accessible, and visible.
What to watch in 2026
- Licensing details (fees, compliance expectations, supplier rules)
- How Alberta handles marketing and advertising standards at launch
- The degree to which sports betting and casino cross-sell accelerates early adoption
Other provinces: steady, uneven growth—and room for expansion
Beyond Ontario and Alberta, growth is expected to be more incremental. Provinces such as Saskatchewan (which has taken steps in online gaming modernization) could contribute to moderate gains, while British Columbia is often discussed as a potential candidate for further competitive expansion over time.
However, the 2026 outlook outside Ontario/Alberta depends on political appetite, consumer demand, and how strongly governments prioritize channelization and tax capture versus maintaining legacy models.
Key growth drivers in 2026
1) Better product experiences and personalization
Online casino platforms are investing heavily in gamification, personalization, and faster payments. In 2026, expect deeper use of tailored promotions, mission-style gameplay mechanics, and improved mobile UX—features that keep players engaged and help regulated operators compete with offshore sites.
2) Streaming, influencers, and esports-adjacent engagement
Casino content increasingly overlaps with streaming culture, with platforms and communities influencing discovery and retention. The rise of casino-adjacent streaming (and broader esports consumption) creates new acquisition channels—though it also raises questions about advertising safeguards and audience age controls.
3) Regulatory expansions and clearer standards
Ontario’s model is still being refined, and Alberta’s launch may add momentum for other provinces to revisit their frameworks. Over time, clearer compliance rules and consumer-protection messaging can increase public trust and normalize regulated play.
Risks and constraints: what could slow the forecast?
- Illegal/grey market competition: Offshore sites still capture meaningful activity in Canada. If regulated products are less competitive on bonuses, game variety, or frictionless onboarding, channelization could stall.
- Economic uncertainty: In a weaker economy, discretionary entertainment spending can soften, affecting deposit frequency and average spend.
- Advertising and compliance tightening: Stricter standards could reduce aggressive acquisition tactics, forcing operators to compete more on product quality and retention.
2026 bottom line
Canada’s online casino industry in 2026 is likely to be defined by two forces working in parallel: Ontario’s continued maturation and Alberta’s potential market launch. Together, they underpin forecasts pointing to multi-billion-dollar regulated online casino revenue potential by 2026, alongside longer-term national growth projections for the broader online gambling category.
If Alberta launches on schedule and other provinces continue gradual modernization, 2026 could be remembered as the year Canada’s regulated online casino market moves from “promising” to “structurally established”—with stronger consumer protections, more competitive legal options, and a clearer national trajectory.
